A Little Know-Howe: The Question of Just How Good WVU's Defense is Likely to Get Answer in Lubbock
By Brad Howe on September 29, 2018 from A Little Know-Howe via Connect-Bridgeport.com
The great Beano Cook once said you don’t know a college football team until it has played three games. 
I agree with his point. You need to see a team multiple times before you have a feel for actual strengths and weaknesses, not just perceived strengths and weaknesses. I think his three game sample size is not quite enough this season for WVU.
I need to see today's game. Today’s game against Texas Tech will begin to answer the last remaining question I have about this team.
How good is West Virginia‘s pass defense?
We would have a better idea about this part of West Virginia’s defense had the NC State game not been canceled. The Wolfpack have a quarterback in Ryan Finley that could be one of the top quarterbacks chosen in the NFL draft. The game in Raleigh would have been a good test. Instead, we’ve only seen WVU play against offenses that were just simply not very good.
The Mountaineers have dominated each of those three offenses and boast some high marks defensively:
- 1st in scoring defense
- 18th in total defense
- 23rd in opponent third down conversion rate
- Texas Tech enters today’s game with high rankings of their own, but on the offensive side of the ball:
- 1st in passing offense
- 1st in total offense
- 5th in scoring offense
- 13th in 3rd down conversion rate
Which group wins out? Texas Tech's offense or the West Virginia defense?
The answer the last four years has been West Virginia’s defense. Over those four seasons, WVU is 4-0 and has held Texas Tech to an 
average of 10 points below its season’s scoring average. In fact, for a series in which both offenses have been so prolific, it’s been surprisingly ‘low scoring.’ The average combined points in this game since WVU joined the Big 12 is 67.
average of 10 points below its season’s scoring average. In fact, for a series in which both offenses have been so prolific, it’s been surprisingly ‘low scoring.’ The average combined points in this game since WVU joined the Big 12 is 67.
If you follow sports betting analytics, the ‘under’ has hit in four of the six games. For reference ... this year’s over/under number for WVU - Texas Tech opened at 77, but had dropped all the way to 70 by yesterday before bouncing back to 73 by mid-afternoon Friday.
Two seasons ago, WVU held Tech’s star quarterback, Pat Mahomes to just one touchdown pass. The following week against Oklahoma Mahomes threw for 734 yards and five touchdowns. Last season, West Virginia’s defense buckled down after giving up 28 points at the half and held the Red Raiders scoreless for the fourth quarter. That defensive effort allowed WVU to rally from an 18-point deficit to win the game 45-34.
I don’t have any doubt West Virginia will score on the Red Raiders. Already this season, Ole Miss scored 47 points and Houston lit up the Tech defense for 49 points in a loss on September 15. WVU will score today. The key to victory rests on West Virginia’s ability to slow down the nation’s number one offense.
Who do you think wins this game? What do you think the score will be?
Leave a comment below or send me a tweet: @BradHowe07
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Editor's Note: Photos by Ben Queen of www.benqueenphotography.com.
