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A Little Know-Howe: Breaking Down 2 Similar Teams Heading into Liberty Bowl and Why WVU Should Win

By Brad Howe on December 27, 2014 from A Little Know-Howe via Connect-Bridgeport.com

Bowl season is upon us and West Virginia is back on the schedule after a one year hiatus from the postseason scene. This is an interesting matchup for the Mountaineers on Monday against Texas A&M. It's always important to win the final game of the season and setup eight months of goodwill before turning the page and beginning the whole dance again. If you can get that season-ending win against a team from the nation's best conference, well, all the better.
 
We know coaching staffs at West Virginia and Texas A&M are very familiar with each other. Dana Holgorsen worked for A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin at Houston while A&M offensive coordinator, Jake Spavital spent time with Holgorsen at Houston, Oklahoma State and West Virginia.
 
WVU defensive coordinator, Tony Gibson has said watching the A&M offense is like looking in a mirror. The similarities of the two teams show up in the stats as well.
 
The two teams only differ in scoring average per game by one point. Texas A&M averages 34.4 points per game, good for 31st in the nation. West Virginia comes into the Liberty Bowl averaging 33.2 points per game, ranking the Mountaineers 38th nationally in scoring offense.
 
West Virginia is ninth in the nation in passing offense at 314.6 yards per game, while A&M checks in at 306.4 yards per game passing, 12th nationally.
 
The fact that the offenses produce similar stats isn't all that surprising given the past relationships of the coaching staffs. What was a little surprising to me upon further study was how similar the defensive statistics were between the two teams.
 
Heading into this game the story has been that Texas A&M's defense was dreadful. Don't get me wrong, the Aggie defense has had moments that make you think back to West Virginia's struggles the past couple of seasons. A&M defensive coordinator Mark Snyder was let go after the regular season so there is no question that unit didn't perform as expected.
 
However, take a look at some of these stats. A&M is 72nd in the nation in scoring defense. West Virginia is better, coming in ranked 61st. But, only one point per game allowed separates the two teams. A&M is 64th nationally in pass defense, West Virignia 65th. In total defense, West Virginia has a big lead in terms of ranking, 59th versus 104 for Texas A&M. However, only 61 yards of offense allowed per game separates the two squads.
 
The big difference between the two units comes in rushing defense. WVU is 67th nationally against the run, while A&M is 115th. More concerning for A&M is the fact it gave up an AVERAGE of 360 rushing yards per game over its final three games.
 
To be fair to A&M, it did face five of the top 34 rushing teams in the country this season (Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, LSU and Mississippi State). As a point of comparison, West Virginia faced three of the top 34 rushing teams and TCU, which ended the regular season ranked 35th nationally.
 
There's no question West Virginia's defense has improved this season, but as you can see from the stats above, it still has a long ways to go. How will it respond to an A&M team that is young, but extremely talented on the offensive side of the ball?
 
A&M is starting a true freshman quarterback, albeit a talented one. Kyle Allen arrived on A&M's campus as the number one quarterback recruit in the country a year ago. He showed why in a 41-38 win at Auburn, then ranked number three in the country, late in the season. Allen threw for 277 yards and four touchdowns.
 
He throws to a talented group of receivers. Josh Reynolds is one touchdown reception away from setting an A&M single season record. Freshman Speedy Noil is known more as a return guy, but is dangerous at receiver as well. He enters the game with 1,322 all-purpose yards. And let's not forget, highly touted freshman, Ricky Seals-Jones who leads the Aggies in receptions with 48.
 
The Mountaineer defense, which is much improved from where it was the past two years, must be ready to go against this talented A&M offense.
 
Another variable in this game is how A&M will respond to the loss of three coaching staff members. It's not that unusual to see staff departures this time of year, but to have three within a few weeks of a bowl game will certainly be a challenge for the Aggies.
 
Now that I've pounded you with stats what does it all mean? I think you're looking at a very close, competitive game that swings based on who wants to be in this game more. Which team is more ready to play in the Liberty Bowl?
 
That variable is always a big factor in these postseason games, but I think becomes even bigger when you're talking about two teams that are as evenly matched as these teams appear to be.
 
If the game comes down to "want-to," I side with West Virginia. This is a Mountaineer program that has shown up mentally nearly every time out this season. Save for the first half at Texas, I can't think of a single game that didn't see the Mountaineers ready to play. It's reasonable to expect them to be fired up to play in this one.
 
Not going to a bowl game has to have left a sour taste in the mouths of the players. Many of these guys also had to experience the disaster in New York for the Pinstripe Bowl against Syracuse. The Orange Bowl trouncing of Clemson feels like it was a decade ago in some respects.
 
Given everything we've seen from this WVU team this season, I would expect a good effort energy and effort-wise. I think if we see that, this Mountaineer team should get the win.
 
What do you think? Does WVU come out on top against Texas A&M on Monday? Leave a comment below or send me a tweet: @bradhowe07 and let me know your prediction.
 
Editor's Note: Photos by Ben Queen of www.benqueenphotography.com.


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