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A Little Know-Howe: Breaking Down the Numbers as WVU Preps for Sweet 16 Battle against Villanova

By Brad Howe on March 23, 2018 from A Little Know-Howe via Connect-Bridgeport.com

The Mountaineers are still dancing. And that shouldn't be taken lightly.
 
This NCAA tournament has been bonkers. There are a bunch of top flight programs sitting at home watching these games. This year's tournament will be remembered for the chaos and upsets. WVU has avoided the upset and hopes to inflict its own brand of chaos tonight and take down another number one seed.
 
Speaking of that number one seed, let's dive into some of the numbers
 
West Virginia was fortunate to get two double digit seeds in first two games of the tournament. WVU opened with the 12 seed (Murray State) and then matched up with 13 seed (Marshall) in the second round. Neither team mounted much of a challenge. In fact, WVU had the fourth largest margin of victory through the first two rounds of the tournament.
 
But, that’s about to change.
 
Not only does the East Region have four of its top five seeds still alive, but take a look at the KenPom.com rankings of the remaining teams squaring off in Boston. (*NOTE: KenPom is an advanced metric ranking system favored by many around college basketball)
 
Villanova is ranked number one, followed by Purdue at four, WVU at 11 and Texas Tech at 13. That’s an average KenPom ranking of 7.25. The next closest regions are the West and Midwest with an average KenPom ranking of 17.75. The South (Kentucky, Nevada, Loyola Chicago and Kansas State) has an average ranking of 28.5.
 
Much like last year when WVU met number one seed and number one KenPom ranked Gonzaga in the Sweet Sixteen, the Mountaineers will have to go through the best to keep dancing.
 
When it comes to West Virginia and Villanova Friday’s matchup will be nothing new. The two teams have met 42 times over the years with the Wildcats leading the series 22-20.
 
WVU and Villanova last met more than seven years ago. West Virginia defeated Villanova 83-69 on December 28, 2011. Truck Bryant led WVU in scoring with 34 points. 
 
This season’s version of the Wildcats features two recently named NABC All-Americans, Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges. Brunson was named to the first team as many around college basketball think he is the front runner for national player of the year. Bridges was a named a third team All-American, but is projected to be a lottery pick in the upcoming NBA draft.
 
Brunson and Bridges may be the most talented players on the Villanova roster, but they are certainly not the only guys that can score. The Wildcats enter tonight’s game with six players averaging in double figures. Talk about balance. 
 
Villanova isn’t just balanced either. They are extremely efficient.
 
Not only is Villanova number one this season in offensive efficiency according to the KenPom rankings, but they rank as the second most efficient offense in KenPom ranking history.  (*NOTE: KenPom.com defines ‘offensive efficiency’ as: the number of points scored per 100 possessions.) 
 
The Wildcats likes the three ball. Nearly half of all the shots they take come from 3-point range. They connect on 40 percent of them.
 
Villanova enters the game against West Virginia just 22 made 3-pointers away from breaking the single season record. Only VMI in 2007 has made more in one season.
 
You know WVU is known for its defense. But, WVU ranked ninth out of 10 Big 12 teams this season when it came to defending the 3-pointer. Opponents connected on 37.5 percent of their 3-point attempts against the Mountaineers.
 
To provide some context to those numbers … many around the WVU program think Villanova compares to Kansas stylistically. In the two regular season games against Kansas this year, the Jayhawks combined to shoot just 33 percent from 3-point range. KU connected on 15 of 45 threes. 
 
That changed, of course, in the Big 12 tournament final when the Jayhawks were red hot. In that game, KU made 15 of 27 threes. Good for a blistering 56 percent.
 
Clearly, West Virginia needs to hope Villanova’s shooting looks more like the first two games versus Kansas rather than the last.
 
It won’t be easy for WVU tonight, but getting to the Elite Eight rarely is. 
 
Editor's Note: Top photo shows Daxter Miles and Jevon Carter who are hoping tonight isn't the final game of their careers. Bottom photo shows Wesley Harris closing out late on a 3-point attempt earlier this year against Virginia. Photos by Ben Queen of www.benqueenphotography.com.


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