Is Dana Holgorsen staying or going?

 

That was the question being asked across the state by fans and apparently, recruits following WVU's season-ending loss to Kansas State last week.

 

The answer to that question came earlier this week via a statement from West Virginia University athletic director Shane Lyons. 

Holgorsen will return as coach for the 2016 season. 

 

Some of you have asked why this was even being discussed following a season in which the Mountaineers won seven games and qualified for a second consecutive bowl game. 

 

One of the reasons is Holgorsen's current contract. There are only two years remaining on his five-year deal. 

 

Why does that matter, you say? It's extremely rare among power five conference schools (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 12, SEC) to have a coach go into a season with only two years remaining on his contract, as Holgorsen would be doing next year if no extension is offered. 

How rare? During the 2015 season, I could only find two coaches who entered the season with just two years left on their contract. 

 

One, Tim Beckman at Illinois was fired a week before the 2015 season began. The other, Mike London at Virginia, was fired shortly after the 2015 regular season ended. That's it. Two guys. Neither made it to 2016.

 

I'll go further. I could only find five coaches who entered the 2015 season with only three years remaining on their contracts. 

The five were: Brian Kelly at Notre Dame, Bill Snyder at Kansas State, Sonny Dykes at Cal, Kevin Wilson at Indiana and Dana Holgorsen. 

 

Dykes and Wilson are said to currently be in negotiations regarding an extension. Bill Snyder's retirement is a topic each year and is likely to happen sooner rather than later. Bill Snyder is one of the few coaches in college football that doesn't have to worry about contract term. He'll let the school know when he's done coaching (having your name on the stadium helps a little, too). 

 

So, across a total of 65 power five programs, of which contract information was available for 60 of those schools (private schools are not required to release coaching contracts if they so choose), only seven had coaches working with less than four years entering the 2015 season.

 

As we get ready to enter the 2016 season, only Brian Kelly, who just completed a regular season that saw the Irish finish in the top 10 and Dana Holgorsen, remain among power five coaches with less than four years on their current contracts. 

 

See what I mean about rare? 

 

I have been saying since August that Holgorsen's contract was going to be a talking point come December. It was obvious. WVU was going to have to either extend Holgorsen's deal or make a change. Doing nothing and forcing him to coach with only two years remaining would seem to be a last resort option.

 

As I just pointed out, coaches with only two years remaining on a deal are basically "dead men walking." 

 

I spent nearly two decades working in three different university athletic departments. I've worked with and been around multiple coaches who are in Halls of Fame or will be soon. Nearly every single one of them has insisted on at least four year contracts. 

 

The coaches will tell you a minimum four year deal is needed so they can show recruits they will be around for their time at the school. Now we can debate the merit of that argument. Coaches leave every year even with a contract. Coaches are fired every year with time still remaining on their contracts. Just because a coach has a four year contract does not guarantee they will be at the school for that long.

 

However, look again at the names I listed above. It's clear presidents and athletic directors are buying the recruiting argument to some extent. The vast majority have granted coaches those minimum four year deals. Real or not, the perception that a less than four year contract hurts recruiting, is something most coaches (agents) have been successful in pitching to schools. 

 

Because of the original contract given to Holgorsen by former AD Oliver Luck and approved by then-President, Jim Clements, WVU is an interesting spot when it comes to re-negotiating with Holgorsen.

 

Extending the contact in its current state (fully guaranteed, no buyout) is not an option either. The university can not put itself in the financial handcuffs it was put in by Luck and Clements with the last deal. 

 

I will continue to say what I said prior to the start of the 2015 season. The most likely next step is a contract extension offer from WVU. The extension, however, would come with a buyout. That buyout amount is what needs to negotiated. Right now, Holgorsen doesn't have a buyout. If he is fired, he is entitled to all the money left on the deal. 

 

The challenge is I'm sure Holgorsen won't be happy with a "lesser" deal than he got the first time around. What will he accept? That's the key question. Can Lyons and Holgorsen (and his agent, Trace Armstrong of CAA) find a number that both parties can accept?

 

We'll know soon enough. I can't imagine either group wants this to drag out much longer. Clearly, recruits were starting to ask questions. Holgorsen and the assistants spent last week on the road seeing recruits. It's no coincidence that an announcement about the coach's status for next year came out right in the middle of that process.

 

One question was answered this week, but many remain. 

 

If you were Shane Lyons, what would you do about Dana Holgorsen's contract? Leave a comment below or send me a tweet @bradhowe07.

 

Editor's Note: Photos of Dana Holgorsen in bad times, above, and good, below, by Ben Queen of www.benqueenphotography.com.